Off-Plan vs Completed Property: Which Offers More Stability?

There is one question we hear in almost every serious investor conversation right now: should I buy off-plan or should I buy completed property?

Both approaches have their place. But as we sit here in 2025, with the market conditions we’re operating in, the trade-offs between the two are sharper than they’ve been for years.

This isn’t a simple “which is better” debate. It’s a question of stability, risk appetite, cash flow planning, and market timing. And increasingly, investors are rebalancing where they place that risk – here’s our take on the off-plan vs completed property debate.

The attraction of off-plan: how we got here

There are very good reasons why off-plan property became so popular, particularly in markets like Manchester over the last 10–15 years.

During periods of strong price growth, off-plan units offered early access to discounted pricing. Developers needed forward funding to get schemes off the ground, so buyers were often able to lock in values 5%, 10%, even 15% below projected market value at the time of completion. In a fluctuating market, this could translate into instant equity growth by the time the building was delivered.

On top of that, staged payment structures allowed investors to spread capital deployment, sometimes committing only 20%–30% upfront with balances due upon completion. For many investors, especially those using leverage, this allowed them to scale portfolios while controlling initial outlay.

When interest rates were low, build timelines were reliable, and prices were rising consistently across the build cycle, this was a highly effective strategy — and many landlords have seen great success from it.

But that environment has changed

The challenges facing off-plan property investors today are not theoretical. They’re being felt directly by buyers already in the pipeline.

Construction costs have risen substantially, driven by materials inflation, labour shortages, and supply chain volatility. Build contracts that previously ran to 24 months are routinely overrunning by 12 months or more. Projects originally slated for 2024 delivery are now completing in late 2025 or 2026.

Developer viability is under pressure. The margins that once allowed developers to absorb risk have narrowed. Mid-sized private operators — particularly those reliant on third-party mezzanine finance — are more exposed than ever to funding gaps. And in certain markets, we’ve already seen developers halt projects entirely, leaving investors exposed to both capital delay and non-completion risk.

Perhaps most importantly, interest rates have fundamentally altered the maths. Many investors who committed to off-plan two or three years ago at historically low borrowing costs are now facing refinancing into much higher debt servicing costs at the point of completion — shrinking net returns that looked far more attractive at the reservation stage.

All of these factors compound into a simple reality: off-plan today carries more layers of risk than it did five years ago.

What completed property offers — and why stability now commands a premium

When you buy a completed asset, you are not buying a forecast — you are buying a functioning investment.

The asset exists. The tenants are in place. The rent is being paid. The building has been delivered, certified, and fully handed over. You’re not waiting two or three years for delivery — you’re generating income from the day you complete.

Void periods, tenant demand, and rental pricing — these are not theoretical models based on comparable estimates. They are evidenced, real-world numbers drawn from the building’s live operational performance.

Crucially, you remove delivery risk entirely. The builder’s funding, the contractor’s schedule, the materials cost volatility — all of it has already played out. The only thing left to manage is tenancy and operational performance, and in a market like Manchester city centre, that is where the market remains at its most reliable.

Where the real risk sits — and how investors are now recalibrating

The core shift we’re seeing in professional investor behaviour right now is very straightforward.

Off-plan investment doesn’t just carry tenant risk (which all property carries). It carries developer risk, construction risk, market timing risk, valuation risk, and debt pricing risk. Completed property carries only tenant performance risk, which, in city-centre Manchester’s core zones, remains extremely well supported by current demand profiles.

For example, in fully operational schemes like Circle Square, where professional management and strong tenant pipelines are in place, we are seeing live performance data that consistently shows:

98% occupancy
Gross yields of 6.5%–7%
Void periods averaging just 11 days

That’s not a sales projection — it’s happening right now. Investors buying these assets step into that performance immediately.

Manchester’s market makes the case even clearer

Manchester remains one of the UK’s most stable growth cities. Its employment base is diversifying further, with technology, life sciences, legal services, higher education, and healthcare all expanding rapidly. Graduate retention sits at 51%, ensuring a constant flow of high-earning young professionals feeding the private rental sector.

But even in this market, the divergence between stock profiles is widening. Not all city-centre developments are equal.

Some off-plan schemes — particularly those on the fringes of core zones, or those from less established developers — are seeing delivery risk increase. Construction delays, specification downgrades, and final valuations falling short of original reservation prices are becoming more common.

At the same time, well-located, fully operational institutional-grade stock continues to see extremely low void periods, consistent tenant demand, and premium rental pricing, particularly where high-end amenities and professional on-site management are in place.

In this environment, investors increasingly ask: what’s the premium worth for completed certainty?

For many, that premium is simply the cost of de-risking.

Where off-plan still works — and for whom

This isn’t to suggest off-plan no longer has a place.

There are still situations where early entry pricing justifies the longer risk horizon:

Early-stage regeneration districts where initial pricing is significantly below future value once the full master plan is delivered.
Institutional forward funding arrangements where developers are capitalised and delivery risk is actively managed.
Larger portfolio investors with sufficient capital liquidity to absorb build-cycle delays.

But for most private investors — particularly those financing acquisitions, looking for income-producing stock, or planning portfolio scaling — completed stock is becoming the rational route.

What this shift looks like inside Centrick Invest’s current buyer pool

The shift we’re seeing right now is practical.

Clients are prioritising:

Deploying capital into assets already producing rental income.
Locking in cash flow stability from day one.
Removing uncertainty around funding cycles and market timing.
Using financing with confidence, knowing rental income is already underwriting the debt service.

The opportunity in Manchester city centre is that this option exists. Fully operational, professionally managed stock is available at price points that still offer attractive rental yields, sensible service charges, and prime tenant positioning inside the most active employment zones.

Circle Square is a live example of what stability looks like

Circle Square exemplifies exactly this trend.

All construction phases are completed and operational.
Tenancy performance fully stabilised: 98% occupancy, void periods averaging 11 days, yields running at 6.5%–7%.
Positioned directly inside Manchester’s £3 billion Oxford Road Corridor economy — walking distance to employers, universities, research hubs and healthcare clusters.
Amenity-led development offering co-working spaces, private dining, roof terraces, 24-hour concierge and full professional management.

For buyers evaluating the market today, this is the kind of stability that allows real portfolio planning, not speculative projection.

The market is rewarding stability, and that will likely continue

We expect capital growth to remain strong across Manchester’s core city-centre residential stock, with forecasts from Savills projecting a further 30% growth by 2030, and ongoing rental growth averaging 3%–4% annually.

But increasingly, the strongest investor returns will not be built by chasing the next speculative off-plan cycle. They will be built by locking into assets where income, tenancy, and operational performance are already live, allowing capital to compound from the first month of ownership.

Explore Circle Square here or fill out the form below to register your interest in this exceptional development.